By Nick Sherman
The Vermont Legislature will reconvene this week for a special session to address the veto of H.518, the state budget. Governor Phil Scott vetoed the budget on June 6 along with H.509, a bill that, in addition to setting property tax rates, would have set up a Vermont Health Benefits Commission to determine whether and how to establish a single statewide health benefit plan for all school employees. The vetoes were the culmination of a disagreement between the Republican governor and Democratic legislative leaders over how teacher contracts should be negotiated.
Governor Scott argues Vermont has a once in a lifetime opportunity to establish a statewide health benefit plan for teachers because the “Cadillac Tax” established by the Affordable Care Act is causing all teacher health care contracts to be renegotiated at the same time. The governor says a statewide health plan will save Vermonters $26 million annually on their property tax bills. Democratic leaders in the House and Senate say the governor’s proposal would impinge on the collective bargaining rights of teachers and that the governor’s ultimate goal is to curtail their bargaining power.
Since the legislature recessed in the early hours of May 19, both the governor and legislative leaders have dug in, making their case publicly via traditional and social media. The Republican and Democratic parties have traded barbs and individual lawmakers and members of the general public have engaged in the debate as well. After a relatively cordial and quiet beginning to the 2017 legislative session, the budget standoff along with the governor’s veto of S.22, a bill that would have legalized the possession of small amounts of marijuana, highlight the growing divide between Democratic lawmakers and the Republican governor.
The controversy over teacher contracts has been well documented and both sides have made their positions clear. The question now is how will this be resolved?
Unlike other bills that are vetoed the budget ultimately needs to pass. Budget vetoes are very rare and disagreements between the legislature and governor are usually worked out before the legislature goes home. But that’s not what happened this year and since the legislature left town negotiations between Democratic legislative leaders and Governor Scott have taken place behind closed doors. With the special session starting tomorrow, June 21, it remains to be seen how their differences will be resolved.
In the time I’ve worked as a lobbyist in Montpelier, the legislature and administration have always had a deal negotiated by the time they reconvened for a veto session. When there hasn’t been agreement on a “fix” the legislature usually doesn’t return at all and the veto stands. The very few but very major exceptions to this (at least in my time) were the override of Governor Jim Douglas’ budget veto in 2009 and the landmark override of his veto of the marriage equality bill the same year.
With the special session starting tomorrow there isn’t a whole lot of time left to work things out before FY18 begins on July 1. Here are a few things that could happen:
- Compromise – At the end of the day things could fall into place, even though there hasn’t been much indication of a compromise. If an agreement is reached before the special session it could be wrapped up in just one or two days.
- Stalemate – As with the end of the regular session the governor and lawmakers could end up without an agreement. This seems somewhat unlikely as both sides have indicated they will not allow the new fiscal year to begin without a budget. If it does happen, the legislature will be in town for a while trying to figure out a path forward. Democratic leaders could push through the same budget they passed before and let the governor decide whether or not he wants to veto it again. The stakes will be higher for both sides with FY18 fast approaching. It will also take at least a week if House Republicans refuse to suspend rules.
- Someone blinks – After all this it is still possible someone will cave. Both sides have dug in since the legislature recessed in May and lawmakers from both parties will not be happy with their respective leadership if they capitulate. That said, something’s got to give if a compromise isn’t reached.
- They pass pot – Things rarely go as planned and this special session is rare in and of itself. Lawmakers and the governor want to address their differences related to the budget and teacher health plans and go home. However, anything can be considered when the legislature convenes; it’s not in any way limited to discussing the measures that were vetoed. Marijuana legalization was another high-profile issue in 2017 (and another bill that was vetoed.) Maybe legalization works its way into the budget deal. Maybe not. It seemed unlikely it would pass the legislature in the first place until very late in the session. In the days leading up to the special session there have been indications the governor and lawmakers might be nearing a deal.
At the end of the day I expect both sides will be able to figure something out, they always do.
Any way you look at it this week will be the beginning of the end of a long and somewhat rocky year of transition in the legislature. Keep watching. It will be interesting to see how it turns out and what the outcome means for future dynamics between the Republican governor and Democratic legislature.